There is probably some kernel of truth to all of them. But the fact remains; there is no original, single, totally accurate database of serial numbers from 1866 forward that we are aware of. But perhaps these pages can help you somewhat in your research.
Winchester Model 25 12 Gauge Serial Numbers
Serial number, 21761 puts it at second year of production I believe. Unfortunately, Manufacture began in 1949 and was discontinued in 1954 after numbers passed 87,937. No records that I know of that break down serial number production per year. Not even my 4th Edition Red Book gives any info on dates besides what is known.
Offered only in 12 gauge. Chokes were Full, Modified, and Improved Cylinder. Some guns below serial number 47,100 had 26 inch barrels with Improved Cylinder choke, however 28 inch barrels were standard. They did make a riot gun model with a 20 inch Improved Cylinder choke and sling swivels. 2ff7e9595c
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